Introduction
Overview
This documentation covers the technical methodologies behind the CommunityScale Housing Forecast application, including population projections, housing affordability analysis, household growth modeling, and market demand estimation. Each methodology page describes the data sources, analytical approach, and key assumptions used to produce the forecasts and indicators presented in the application.
Recommended Citation
CommunityScale Housing Forecast (2025). Housing needs analysis and population projection tool. Available at: https://app.communityscale.io
@misc{communityscale2025,
title = {CommunityScale Housing Forecast},
year = {2025},
note = {Housing needs analysis and population projection tool},
url = {https://app.communityscale.io}
}
Embedding Charts and Maps
Every chart and map in the Housing Forecast application is served directly from app.communityscale.io and can be embedded in an external website with a standard iframe. Embedded charts automatically reflect the latest data as the underlying pipelines refresh — including American Community Survey estimates, FRED economic indicators, Zillow home values, and CommunityScale's population forecasts. No manual intervention is required to keep embedded charts current.
The canonical embed URL patterns are:
https://app.communityscale.io/cards/{chart_type}— US-level charthttps://app.communityscale.io/{scope}/{geoid}/cards/{chart_type}— a single geography, wherescopeiscounty,municipality,state, ortracthttps://app.communityscale.io/cards/affordability_map— national affordability choroplethhttps://app.communityscale.io/cards/supply_need_map— 5-year housing supply need choropleth
For example, to embed the housing affordability chart for Union County, NC:
<iframe
src="https://app.communityscale.io/county/37179/cards/housing_affordability"
width="100%" height="420" frameborder="0"
title="Housing affordability in Union County, NC"></iframe>
The same data is also available as JSON at /{scope}/{geoid}/api/cards/{chart_type} (or /api/cards/{chart_type} for the US aggregate).
Methodologies Overview
The methodologies in this application integrate data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system, and commercial data providers. Together they form a pipeline that moves from demographic projections through housing demand quantification.
- Population Forecast — Cohort-component projections using ARIMA and Leslie matrices
- Housing Affordability — Income required to afford the typical home
- Household Growth by Income — Household growth segmented by AMI categories
- 10-Year Production Target — Housing units needed to accommodate projected growth
- Market Demand — Demand by price point, tenure, and bedroom count