10-Year Housing Production Target

The housing production target represents the total number of new housing units needed over a 10-year period to accommodate projected growth while addressing existing market imbalances. This comprehensive approach accounts for six distinct components of housing need.

Component 1: Net Household Growth

Formula:

N_growth = H_t+10 - H_t

where:

H_t = current household count
H_t+10 = projected household count in 10 years

Household growth is calculated from population forecasts (described in the Population Forecast methodology) using PUMS-derived population-to-household ratios by household type. This baseline demand represents new households formed through population growth, changes in household formation rates, and demographic shifts.

Data Sources:

Population forecasts (ACS B01001, Leslie Matrix projections)
PUMS household composition ratios

Component 2: Replacement Housing

Replacement housing accounts for units lost to demolition, disaster, or conversion to non-residential use. The annual replacement rate is calculated from historical patterns in ACS year-built data.

Formula:

N_replacement = r_replacement × H_existing × 10

where:

r_replacement = annual replacement rate
H_existing = current housing stock

The replacement rate is estimated from ACS Table B25034 (Year Structure Built) by identifying the rate at which older housing stock exits the market based on cohort survival analysis.

Data Sources:

ACS Table B25034: Year Structure Built (11 time period categories)

Component 3: Vacancy Adjustments

Vacancy adjustments ensure healthy market functioning by comparing current vacancy rates to minimum stability targets.

Target Vacancy Rates:

Owner-occupied: 1.5%
Renter-occupied: 7.4%

These targets are derived from historical market equilibrium analysis. Owner-occupied units require lower vacancy to enable normal market turnover for home sales. Rental units require higher vacancy to allow reasonable choice and mobility for renters.

Formula:

For owner-occupied units:

If τ_owner,actual < τ_owner,target: N_{vacancy,owner} = H_owner × (τ_owner,target - τ_owner,actual)
Otherwise: N_{vacancy,owner} = 0

For renter-occupied units:

If τ_{renter,actual} < τ_{renter,target}: N_{vacancy,renter} = H_renter × (τ_{renter,target} - τ_{renter,actual})
Otherwise: N_{vacancy,renter} = 0

N_vacancy = N_{vacancy,owner} + N_{vacancy,renter}

where:

τ_target = target vacancy rate (1.5% owner, 7.4% renter)
τ_actual = current vacancy rate
H_owner, H_renter = existing owner and renter housing stock

When current rates fall below these thresholds, additional units are needed to restore market fluidity.

Source: Belsky, E. S., Drew, R. B., & McCue, D. (2007)

Data Sources:

ACS Table B25002: Occupancy Status
ACS Table B25003: Tenure (Owner/Renter)

Component 4: Overcrowding Adjustments

Overcrowding is defined as more than 1.0 person per room. When local overcrowding rates exceed national averages, additional housing units are prescribed to provide adequate housing options.

Formula:

If r_local > r_national: N_overcrowding = H_overcrowded - (H_total × r_national)
Otherwise: N_overcrowding = 0

where:

r_local = local overcrowding rate
r_national = national overcrowding rate (benchmark)
H_overcrowded = households with >1.0 person per room
H_total = total households

Data Sources:

ACS Tables: Household size and rooms in housing unit
National overcrowding benchmarks from ACS national estimates

Component 5: Substandard Housing Adjustments

Substandard housing is defined as units lacking complete plumbing or kitchen facilities. Similar to overcrowding, when local rates exceed national norms, additional units are needed.

Formula:

If s_local > s_national: N_substandard = H_substandard - (H_total × s_national)
Otherwise: N_substandard = 0

where:

s_local = local substandard housing rate
s_national = national substandard rate (benchmark)
H_substandard = units lacking complete facilities

Data Sources:

ACS Tables: Complete plumbing facilities, complete kitchen facilities
National benchmarks from ACS national estimates

Component 6: Total Production Target

The total production target sums all components:

N_total = N_growth + N_replacement + N_vacancy + N_overcrowding + N_substandard

This comprehensive metric addresses:

Growth: New household formation
Replacement: Maintaining existing stock
Market Health: Adequate vacancy for market function
Quality: Reducing overcrowding and substandard conditions