Data Sources

The CommunityScale Housing Forecast integrates data from multiple federal and commercial sources. Each source is ingested through automated pipelines, transformed into a consistent geographic and temporal framework, and stored in a PostgreSQL/PostGIS database for use across all forecast modules.

U.S. Census Bureau

Population Estimates Program (PEP)

• Coverage: 2010-2025 (intercensal 2010-2019 estimates plus the current postcensal vintage)
• Geography: Counties (totals, estimates by age, group-quarters totals); incorporated places and county subdivisions (SUB-EST totals); national estimates by single year of age
• Update Frequency: Annual release, July 1 reference date
• Purpose: Historical population basis and launch-year anchor for the population forecast

American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates

• Coverage: 2010-2024 (15 survey years)
• Geography: All geographies with population ≥ 65,000; PUMA-level for microdata
• Update Frequency: Annual release

Key Tables:

ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS)

• Coverage: 2010-2023 5-Year PUMS (multiple vintages)
• Files: Household and person microdata
• Weights: WGTP (household), PWGTP (person), WGTP1-WGTP80 (replicate weights)
• Key variables: HINCP, ADJINC, TEN, BDSP, MV, GRNTP, SMOCP, GRPIP, OCPIP
• Purpose: Household composition ratios, WTP distributions, income distributions, mover identification

TIGER/Line Shapefiles

• Vintage: 2023
• Layers: State, County, County Subdivision, Place, Census Tract, PUMA, CBSA, ZCTA
• Format: PostGIS geometry in PostgreSQL database

PUMA Geography Crosswalks

Census Bureau allocation factors (AFACT) for consistent geographic definitions across decennial boundaries (2000, 2010, 2020 PUMAs).

HUD (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development)

Income Limits Data

• Years: 2010-2025
• Content: Area Median Income and income limit thresholds
• Household Sizes: 1-8 persons
• Thresholds: Extremely Low (30% AMI), Very Low (50% AMI), Low (80% AMI), Median (100% AMI)
• Source: https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/il.html

LEHD LODES (U.S. Census Bureau)

Workplace Area Characteristics (WAC)

• Coverage: 2002-present
• Geography: Census block (block-level job counts at the workplace location)
• Use: Job-count totals and job counts by NAICS-derived sector (cns01-cns20), aggregated to state, county, place, county subdivision, and CBSA via the block-to-geo crosswalk
• Sector groupings:
  • Knowledge sector: cns09-cns14
  • Blue collar: cns01-cns05, cns08
  • Service sector: cns06, cns07, cns17-cns19
  • Eds, meds & public: cns15, cns16, cns20

Transportation and Built Environment (H+T)

Sources specific to the Housing + Transportation cost methodology and its built-environment measures:

GTFS Transit Schedules

• Coverage: Aggregated national feeds, roughly 2,300 transit agencies, refreshed with each pipeline run
• Use: Distance to nearest stop, service frequency (PM-peak departures), weekly trip counts, and CNT-style transit connectivity rings, computed at the census-block level and population-weighted to block groups

BTS LATCH (Local Area Transportation Characteristics for Households)

• Vintage: LATCH 2.0 (National Household Travel Survey 2017 with ACS 2012-2016)
• Geography: Census tract (~73,000 tracts), disaggregated to block groups against ACS household size and vehicle marginals
• Use: Survey-anchored household VMT estimates, calibrated to EPA NEI 2020 county roadway VMT; serves as the fallback VMT basis where the odometer model is out of support

State Odometer Records

• States: Colorado, Missouri, New York, Oregon (vehicle inspection and DMV registration records)
• Grain: ZIP code, millions of paired readings
• Use: Primary basis for the H+T daily-VMT model; measures driving directly rather than inferring it from travel diaries

BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES)

• Vintage: 2024
• Use: Vehicle fixed ownership cost, per-mile operating cost, and the national transit-pass benchmark used to price predicted transportation behavior

National Transit Database (NTD) and NAIC

• Use: Regional cost variants only. NTD realized fares (revenue over trips) by urbanized area vary the transit cost; NAIC 2023 state average auto-insurance expenditures vary the insurance share of vehicle ownership cost

Center for Neighborhood Technology (CNT)

• Reference: H+T Index Methods, November 2022, and the published H+T Affordability Index
• Use: Methodological specification and independent block-group-level validation target; CNT data is not an input to our pipeline

BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS)

• Coverage: Most recent annual vintage
• Geography: MSA (CBSA-level wage estimates) plus a national total
• Use: Local-wage percentiles (p25, p50, p75) for a curated set of 12 occupations, resolved to each geoid via county FIPS → CBSA. Geographies outside any MSA fall back to the national OEWS series.

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

Mortgage Rates

• Series: MORTGAGE30US
• Description: 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average
• Frequency: Weekly
• Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

Per Capita Income Growth

• Purpose: Income extrapolation and inflation adjustment
• Frequency: Annual

Commercial Data

Home Value Index

• Series: Middle-tier Single-Family and Condo (33rd-67th percentile)
• Smoothing: Seasonally adjusted, smoothed
• Frequency: Monthly
• Geography: County, County Subdivision, Place

Property Insurance Rates

• Aggregation: ZIP code level aggregated to Census geographies
• Content: Average annual property insurance rates

Inflation Adjustment

All income and cost values are adjusted to a common year using ADJINC and ADJHSG factors from PUMS data.